Unless BTC Breaks Above 200/350 Daily SMA ...Still Bearish
#btc #bitcoin #crypto #altcoins
Trading Fam,
Crypto traders must have been naughty this year. Even our expected Santa Rally fell short of expectations. In other words, even this crypto grinch expected more from Santa’s reindeer. As stated in previous posts, I was expecting a bounce to at least 100k. But so far, that hasn’t happened. BTC remains in the bear flag and could not even muster enough energy to touch the top of the channel. Unless Santa had mechanical issues with his sleigh and is running behind, it looks like crypto traders have received coal in their stockings this year. So, here’s what I am seeing for price action moving into next year.
The only way we can count our Wyckoff Market Cycle as complete is if we happen to rally up above the top of our bear flag channel and break above the 350 SMA (orange) with confirmation. However, even that leaves some doubt. I’d prefer to see us break above that 200 SMA (red) and confirm to be more sure, otherwise, any rally may simply become a big old bull trap.
The remaining scenarios I see are noted: we either break down from the bear flag immediately, or we touch the top of the flag first, or that descending red trendline before continuation down. At this point, these are the most likely scenarios.
That red trendline on the underside of price, which is currently acting as support, comes all the way from the previous cycle highs in April of 2021 to Nov. of 2021 and is continued out to the present day. If this is broken, further selling should be expected. At that point, I am not even sure my Target #1 would hold strong.
Meanwhile, gold, silver, and basically all precious metals are flying! Just don’t let Peter Schiff know you’ve noticed.
✌️Stew