Tomorrow's FOMC Decision and The Week Ahead For Crypto
Traders,
I hope that you are hanging in there. The amount of patience this market takes has gotten the best of many. Though I attempt to set my emotions aside in order that I can make reasonable trades, it is growing increasingly difficult to do that in this market. If I am being honest, this market just sucks for altcoin traders. There is really no nice, careful, or diplomatic way of putting it. With the SEC continued war on altcoins, I am unsure much will change unless and until some more good news comes out. The ETH ETF helped but not as much as I would have liked to see. The altcoin market really needs to see a Ripple-like win at a lower-level altcoin such as UNISWAP or the like.
But here we are. We are trading alts the best that we can and fortunately, we have been able to pick out some good setups and grab some great wins. Paid members be sure you are tracking any trade changes by clicking the button below. We are still in all trades and should do well provided what I explain next will occur.
Let’s talk about where we are at and what must happen.
First, on our calendar of events, the most important event that stand out is the FOMC rate decision. It is expected that there will be no adjustment.
The continued pause is influencing the dollar a bit, however, I believe this will be short-lived as the dollar appears to simply be forming a bear flag. Once we hit our heads on that 105.6 resistance, we should start to drop again.
The VIX is also on the rise again. Naturally, with the VIX up and the Dollar up, we should see a pause/pullback in the stock market which will trickle on over into our crypto space. And that is exactly what is occurring.
Bitcoin did actually form the right shoulder of our projected inverse H&S. However, bulls just were not strong enough at the moment to break that neckline, retreating back down to previously drawn support levels. It is possible that we retreat even further before this particular pullback is completed and we’d still have a nice right shoulder. My lowest level of pullback is 64.5k which is also support from our multi-year trendline of 2019.
Ethereum has mimicked the pattern of Bitcoin. I had projected 3500 to be the low of this right shoulder but I do see that we have that 100-day SMA and 50-day SMA just below us acting as attractors. I could see us wick down to that 50-day SMA for a quick kiss and go.
If we do dip further, which is very possible, it will make it hard for me to remain long in some of my altcoin positions. It is a pain in the *** to get stopped out and have to buy back in all positions which I am very bullishly biased on for the remainder of the summer, so, I have some decisions to make here: 1) Do I sell now until I am sure alts are done bleeding?, 2) Do I get stopped out and then try to buy back in at a lower price? 3) Do I remove stops on my alts until Ethereum hits that 50/100-day SMA?
Quite honestly, I am inclined to do the latter. The reason is that I see that we are near our local bottom. Any further selling would probably be another quick flush to liquidate the last remaining longs. This would result in a fast wick down and immediate buy-back, leaving those of us without bots left in the dust for a loss.
I also don’t think the first option is good since we are near our local low.
Therefore, as risky as it is, my last option seems best and it is one that I am willing to take. I will watch these Bitcoin and Ethereum levels closely. If it looks like they aren’t going to hold, I will remove my stops and just play my alt-longs through.
Members, though I try to stay on top of the spreadsheet, sometimes my decisions are made last minute based upon the last-minute data I am looking at. So, the spreadsheet may not always reflect the very latest trade actions. Hope you understand.
Here is the most current data:
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