The Plan
Greetings Readers,
Just wanted to take a minute to thank you for participating in my recent poll. The poll questions have given me valuable feedback and are helping to provide future direction for this channel. For those of you who may have missed it, the poll remains open. You can view it here:
So, one of the things about trading is that you can never count on a stable socio-political or macroeconomic environment. These are some of the fluctuations that have strongly influenced crypto prices over the last few years, especially altcoins.
As I am sure you are all aware, there is a strong war being waged against crypto by the SEC. And many of the political powers that be strongly dislike cryptos presence despite often using it for their own political agenda in speeches and campaign trails. We must be wary of this activity and vigilant in discerning these gaslighting efforts. Politics matter. The wrong candidates could make the situation even worse.
Despite mostly sideways to downward price action over the last 3 years (excluding the small bull run from Oct23-Apr24), we have done okay trading alts, more than doubling our win-to-loss ratio during this time. All this while only going long, non-leveraged, and crypto-only in our trades.
But I need to do better and I think this can be done. That is why I have decided to implement a few shifts in our trading strategies. I’ve already outlined a few thoughts and ideas. And now, based on your feedback I have a few more.
First of all, I am going to try just simply following a signal. As I’ve posted about already, I think I have something in mind that could give us as high as a 90% success rate. In backtesting on Bitcoin for the last two years, the signal produced 100% accuracy. However, repainting would have taken this accuracy down a bit.
I’ve also noticed that the signal doesn’t work quite as well on highly volatile assets such as penny stock or small cap alts and memecoins. It also doesn’t work quite as well on stocks but is still far more accurate than anything I have ever seen.
In any case, it simplifies my trade strategy while at the same time producing remarkable results overall. So, I think it’s worth a shot trying.
That said, the second thing I will be doing is trading only a handful of cryptos. Mostly larger cap. Of course, including Bitcoin. You all know that Bitcoin is the lead dog. Therefore, if we can get at least that prediction right in terms of price direction, you all can trade alts the way you want following Bitcoin’s lead.
I will also be introducing stock trades. Again, only a handful of the largest leaders in the U.S. markets. We will be going long and short, playing both sides of the trade for a few reasons not least of which includes providing more trades and more profit for our portfolio. I am most nervous about this strategy shift mainly because I personally have not had the best luck on the short side. However, my indicator looks like it will provide reliable signals in both directions. If I am going to trust a signal, I have to trust it all the way.
Thirdly, at some point in the near future, after we get a couple of successful trades with this new indicator under our belt, I will be resetting my spreadsheet. You may have already noticed changes to the spreadsheet, I have updated quite a few things and have more data available in graph format as well. Those of you who are paid subs, check it out.
Fourthly, you may have noticed a “Trade Alerts” tab at the top. This is where I will send out my signals. Paid subs you will have the ability to see all signals announced there. I am separating trade alerts from my main newsletter because I am learning that many of my followers are here simply for my macro overview. I don’t want to spam readers with irrelevant data. I may also start a chat thread posting these alerts. Some wrinkles may still need to be worked out as we go but the main goal is to provide all of my followers and readers with only the data they subscribed for. Substack, though I love its ease of use, is not very granular in this regard and thus, I have to be pretty creative to get this done. But I will figure it out.
And finally, some of you have mentioned copy trading or some form of automation as a suggestion. I really do plan to make this available at some point but I would like to find a non-KYC DEX platform that will do this for me, at least for crypto. Any suggestions on this please shoot them my way via the comments section below.
Thank you all for your continued support and following, and for bearing with me during these changes. Please know that I will always continue to try to provide you with the very best of my analysis and trade performance as we move forward.
Best,
Stew