Trading Fam,
This is my first crypto trade in a minute. Keep in mind, this is not me turning bullish yet. As I have stated all along, I am bearish Bitcoin to 38-42k sometime mid-2026 UNLESS (big exception here) Bitcoin can defeat 81k on the daily with a second confirmation candle. Then I might start to show some signs of bullish interest. But I’ll really only become a bull again if 81k is defeated on the weekly with a second week’s confirmation candle. Until this time, I remain bearish, and we’ll simply be playing fear, bearish exhaustion, and dead cat bounces as the opportunity avails itself to enter these types of trades.
In this case, we are in extreme fear, and my Pivot Zones Indicator has flashed a BUY signal. This was given on Feb. 7th and has now been confirmed with a large liquidity block. On the Bitcoin price chart, my indicator is very accurate. Therefore, I have a high degree of confidence that I can take this trade with minimal risk. I will be trading the BITO etf in this case.
In the top chart, you can see where my indicator gave us our BUY signal. I have chosen to enter today as we near the bottom of our bullish channel. I expect the next move up to break us out. I think this move will propel us up nearly 25% to that 81k resistance, where I plan to sell.
Because I am trading Bitcoin using the BITO etf, this will target a gap fill at around $11.33. Since I am using a 1:2 RRR, this will equate to a $7.76 stop out level. However, I don’t expect us to drop too far below that 200-week SMA, which is currently acting as strong support.
The Fear/Greed index is at an extremely fearful 5, making this a perfect opportunity to buy and capitalize on said fear.
✌️Stew
UPDATE (3/4/26): We broke the channel to the upside and should now approach our 50-day SMA (blue line) fairly quickly. It wouldn’t hurt to take some profit off at that point. Should we drop back down from that resistance, you could always re-enter at a lower price if desired and trade your way up to our final target. Or, just take some profit and let the rest ride. You do you!
