I'm Discontinuing My Crypto Portfolio!
Why I'm choosing to mainly focus on stock trading again.
Trading Fam,
Apologies for the clickbait title, but it’s true, I am ending my crypto portfolio. This does not mean I am ending my crypto trading altogether. Most of them, yes. But not all of them. Now, let me explain why, and more importantly, how I plan to move forward.
First, a bit of context.
I started this crypto trading journey at least 10 years ago. Many of you have been following me for at least 5 years, when I decided to go public and display all of my trades. I made a ton of money during the last bull run in alts. I suppose a lot of traders did. And, some of you who followed me during that last part of the peak when I started trading told me as much. Although I did not expect to continue that kind of success, it may have been a tad bit naive of me to think that the market makers would not move in to capitalize on this kind of profit. My old ways of analyzing charts and trading this highly volatile and now manipulated crypto market were beginning to not work as well as they did in the past for me. Admittedly, I came over from the stock side of trading (where I did okay) to crypto precisely because crypto followed technicals more purely than many stocks did at the time, and I knew there was money to be made. Technical analysis was relatively easy before the big boys started to target crypto. It was mostly retail in the space. And retail traders are fairly easy to predict. But once money started to flow into crypto and millionaires were made from almost nothing, crypto quickly became the target of entities much higher than all of us. Luna was crashed. The SEC started illegal lawsuits against many crypto communities and blockchains while, at the same time, refusing to provide a rulebook. FTX crashed. Quite a few millionaire crypto holders were found dead or their planes crashed. Etc. I will not get into all of the conspiracy here, but let me just say that nation-states and powerful entities with a lot of money do not like to be left out. There are many reasons for this. It’s not just money. I don’t blame them for any of their reasons. I am simply recognizing this as a cause for more difficulty in trading crypto, especially small market cap and small volume traded altcoins, which, as you know, is what I have mostly traded during this time.
I had to find a better way. I had to somehow find some clues as to how the MM’s were going to move next. Enter my new AI-coded indicator.
It just so happened that I was staring at the charts one day when “Walla” …a lightbulb moment! Some indicators that I just so happened to be playing around with on TradingView paired in a way I never expected, showing me exactly where institutional traders were buying and selling. I couldn’t believe my eyes. In all my years of trading, I had really never come across a set of indicators with so much accuracy and success. I back-tested to be sure I could believe what I was seeing. Right on!
So, my next step was to have AI code the indicators together into one. This would then give me more accurate “BUY” and “Sell” signals. It worked!
But, there was a catch. After a year of studying, experimenting, and testing, I have found that the indicator is really only successful on the highest-cap and highest volume traded assets. This is probably because it is much, much more difficult for market makers to easily manipulate that kind of capital. But I wanted to be sure my assessment was correct, so I kept my crypto portfolio open during my testing period, continuing to trade alts as I had in the past, only this time, I only used my indicator to signal my trades. It netted me some wins, but largely failed, especially on the smaller-cap altcoins. And really, that’s all I was trading. If I had just started out trading Bitcoin, almost perfect. But I didn’t trade Bitcoin. I traded altcoins. My mistake. Live and learn.
This brings me to where I am today. You’ve all had the opportunity to watch me test, try, study, experiment, and trade with my indicator now for over a year. You’ve seen the results. In my stock portfolio, we are winning big. In fact, at the time of this writing, I am up 250% plus (pending sales) in just over a year. Crypto? Wah, wah. Mostly losses. I have recorded all of these losses publicly for you to see. Because we all learn from both the wins and losses. Mostly the losses. But I have had enough losing now. And my goal all along has been to help the small traders win.
Along with you all, I have learned that my indicator just doesn’t play well in these small-cap, highly volatile, and highly manipulated environments. It does work well on assets that cannot be so easily controlled. If you think about it, the entire crypto market cap, including Bitcoin, is still less than the market cap of some of the largest companies out there (ie - Apple, NVidia, etc.). The altcoin market is sometimes only a fraction of the market cap of these largest companies. Then we drill down even farther to more obscure alts and memecoins, and now, if I am being honest, we are just gambling. It’s time to stop gambling and actually start to make more reliable profits.
That’s exactly why I am ending my crypto portfolio. I’ve given it the old college try. It hasn’t worked. And while I will not be trading most crypto any longer, that does not mean I will not be trading crypto at all. I will go towards the largest institutionally owned cryptos, cryptos with ETFs and Trust Funds, etc. I will trade miners, or stocks like Bitcoin-weighted Microstrategy, if I want to get my hands on crypto. Why? Because this is where my indicator works.
We all want to make money. Sometimes, to really get there, it takes brutal honesty with ourselves and the data that is available for us to use. And honesty always takes courage. This may not be what some of you all wanted to hear from me today, but I think the time has come for me to make this change. I will only keep my stock portfolio open for now. We will continue to use the indicator for a little longer. You all can still follow these trades here for free as I make them publicly for now.
Happy trading, all!
✌️Stew