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Dollar Bulls Are Winning
#dollar #dxy #vix #stocks #pullback #bitcoin #crypto
We have been monitoring the U.S. dollar for years now. It is, by far, one of the most significant variables in monitoring what price action may do elsewhere. Almost everything here in the U.S. hinges upon it and its ripple impact is, without a doubt, global. Crypto most certainly is not excluded.
I was early to spot this Head and Shoulders pattern. It was in October of last year that I think I first speculated this ominous pattern may be forming on our DXY chart. But I was not really clear then whether or not it would truly form and furthermore, if it would play out.
Fast forward to today. I am still not clear. However, there are several clues that may indicate that this H&S pattern will become invalidated. Of course, the number one clue is the ever-increasing strength of the dollar. Should it beat that 105.6 level I have drawn, I don't believe the pattern remains valid. Comment below if you disagree. Ensure to comment as to why you disagree in order that we can all learn together.
Another reason I have doubted the pattern is that dip below our neckline in mid-August. On the daily, the neckline was broken. But then we quickly reversed. On the weekly chart, the break was never confirmed with a second candle opening and closing below the neckline. Therefore, I kept the pattern present on my chart and continued to monitor.
But it looks as though we are now approaching decision time. And in my mind, if my level of 105.6 is absorbed and confirmed, I can safely remove the pattern from the chart and cease tracking. This would spell bad news for the market. As I have discussed many times previously, as stronger dollar generally weighs down the U.S. stock market, especially when the VIX plays along with it and increases the measurement of fear/panic. As of today, the VIX is at an all time two-year low. This sends sort of a mixed signal to traders. I like to think of it as a neutralizing factor. When the dollar is up but the VIX is moving down, generally the market tends to move sideways. So, we are relatively safe right now. However, should that fear index spike, expect a significant pullback to occur in the U.S. stock market, especially if that dollar beats my level.
Stay tuned as I continue to track these scenarios.