Discussions from our Telegram Group

Traders,

This drop is ugly. And I feel terrible for all of you suffering through it with me. I am also disappointed in myself for not seeing it more clearly in the beginning.

As many of you know, we have a Paid Subs Group which engages with a lot of interesting discussion. I learn a ton from these guys and I think you will too. If you are a paid sub, feel free to join the group here:

https://t.me/+C8rALntV-29kZTEx

I will have to verify your subscriber email before I approve so please send me an email with your Telegram user id so that I know to accept you into the group.

I wanted to also share here a response I gave within the group. I has several questions about the price of BTC (where it was going), the possibility of price manipulation, and where one of my altcoin trades (QNT) might be going. The following was my response:
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Guys, I am sorry you all are suffering through this with me. This is rough. But as I look at all the on chain data and other data points, I continue to conclude that this is not the start of a longer term bear cycle. Psychologically, whether right or wrong, I have determined to hold through this cycle, which may be (and hopefully so) final capitulation.

As far as bitcoin price, I will do another update today showing you where I see support. I have mentioned the $36,000 level numerous times in past videos but doubted whether or not we would arrive at such a price. Looks like the market is, in fact, headed to that level.

As M B alludes to via analogy in the oil space, we must always be aware that manipulation can occur everywhere money is present. Crypto is no different. I alluded to a couple of nation states that own much of Bitcoin a few weeks ago and then posed in the form of a question, whether or not it might be in their interest politically to manipulate crypto prices further by selling at exactly the wrong time. The U.S. specifically is notorious for this behavior. Not only are they a top hodler of BTC, but with the Fed hinting at buying ETFs and big banks developing their own digital currencies on the side, this could be entirely possible. It's at least one possibility within the scope of infinite possibilities right?
At any rate, BTC will probably hit that $36,000 marker very soon.

A few months ago, I pointed out a Head and Shoulders pattern that I brazenly stated I was ignoring. Now, I still don't see that playing out but I did ask a question which I did not receive an adequate answer for to all of my subs. The question had to do with the small right shoulder. I wondered if this invalidated the pattern. And I suppose I will have to learn the answer now through this experience. My current theory remains that while the right shoulder does not entirely invalidate the H&S pattern, it may suggest that we will not drop as low as a standard well-formed H&S pattern will take us. Still observing this data for more knowledge on this.

As far as the ALTS go, it is extremely ugly. I am in several that have dropped like a hot rock. QNT looks like it still could drop to $100. It's really hard to see what the right move would be but if I was trading with the lower CBpro fees, I would probably wait for a bounce, sell into strength (at the $136 level) and then look to re-enter at around $100.

That being said, because I am in CB jail for the time being, I will not look to trade or swap any of these losses at this point. I will only incur more losses. I have determined to hold through.

We'll talk to you all soon.
- Stew