Crypto & Stock Market Update
#crypto #bitcoin #dominance #ethereum #altcoins #stocks #spy #dxy #dollar
Trading Fam,
Monday update here. We’ll start with Crypto.
On the BTC.D chart, you can see Bitcoin dominance bounced off of that critical support as anticipated. You will now see that it has broken support to the downside with confirmation on the daily. This officially (imo) signals the beginning of altcoin season! You heard it here first. Alts should continue to run through the year-end, if not longer.
Ethereum helps to confirm my thesis here as it not only has reached my $4100 price target, but has broken through to the upside, exceeding this target. The $4100 level is now being used as support.
A few weeks ago, I also posted potential price paths for the total market cap, indicating two, but with my bias being towards the first. Indeed, the first path played out, exactly as anticipated, indicating a full send is currently active in the crypto space! Higher we’ll go. Much higher.
STOCKS:
Now onto stocks, though obviously, this information is also relevant to crypto. A weak dollar equals higher prices for everything, including crypto, and what happens to stocks generally spills over into crypto. That’s partly why we track the SPY so closely.
The U.S. dollar continues to show weakness and is hovering at the bottom of a long 15-year channel (see chart below). We hit the bottom once and bounced, but the bounce was underwhelming. We broke to the upside of a descending trendline, but that too was underwhelming. If we break to the downside of this channel, it is all over for the U.S. dollar. BRICS wins. Crypto wins. Precious metals will win. Commodities will win. The stock market blows the top briefly. And eventually this brings with it a great risk to hyperinflationary recession here in the U.S. If you think shit is expensive now, the U.S. dollar will be saying, “Hold my beer!”.
On the SPY, we have almost reached my final target of 670-700. You can see from the chart above that we are pressing up into resistance. Will it break? We’ll need good volume to do that, and to get that, we’ll need some kind of extraordinary macro-economic news: war ended, tariff surplus, capital gains tax reduction, or a tax deal, JPOW drops rates lower than expected …something like that could push us through if it were known to make a positive economic impact. Otherwise, it’s possible we simply continue drifting slowly upwards on the underside of that resistance channel.
One thing I am certain of is that I will probably begin looking to sell if one of three things occurs: the dollar breaks to the downside of that 15-year up-channel, the SPY hits or nears that 670 target #3, or November/December comes around and the SPY still has not broken that upside resistance (I’ll have to reasses at that time).
We are nearing the end phase. My first two SPY targets were hit perfectly. I even got the timing right, which does not always happen. I will not be pressing my luck with target three. Got my finger on the sell-switch and am ready to take my profits on any three of the above conditions met (the third with some reassesment prior to).
✌️Stew