Traders,

I want everyone to be aware of this bear flag which has formed on our 4hr chart:

Does this mean that bitcoin descends further? It could.

However, on the upside, it seems that this flag has received a lot of attention from technical analysts. Why do I say this is an “upside”? Well, right now, as we know, the crypto community is shaken. There is a tremendous amount of FUD due to the Luna/UST crash. So, what that means is that most of the traders have already gone bearish. This leaves weakness on the upside which could collapse. In other words, there is an overabundance of shorts and not enough longs. Price does not follow gravity. It is like a river that flows. It will always go to the weakest points of resistance and continue to flow. Right now weakness remains on the long side.

I know there is really not a perfect way to capture this sentiment but the greed/fear index can help. It is extremely bearish right now. Also, by watching the sentiment of various analysts being posted, you can observe firsthand how bearish most traders are at this moment.

All this to say that in true form of Stewdamus 2.0, I have placed most of my stops in case we do break down further, however, I am also open to the fact that this bear flag may not deserve the same probability score as it usually should. The market could be surprised with a move to the upside as our strong support of $29k continues to hold.

Be hopeful but be cautious. Find a reasonable placement for your stops below and put those stops in. I’ll be both preaching and practicing that strategy publicly going forward.

Best to you all,
Stew