Bitcoin Bulls Still Struggling!
#bitcoin #btc #btcusd #crypto #cryptomarket #cryptocurrency #altcoins
Will this week or next become the moment when BTC bulls take a break and allow the bears to have their neckline retest? We will find out soon. Let's take a look at my chart to explain what must occur. There is one critical level that BTC must remain on top of if these bulls are going to continue this run. Can you spot it?
Before I get to what is key for BTC, let's talk about some of the other things happening on the chart here.
First, you will notice that black descending trend line. I drew that a couple of weeks ago in anticipation that new pivot highs would not be able to recapture previous pivot hit territory, let alone run higher, before a pullback to our C&H neckline. This, so far, has ended up to be the market's correct trend, descending. April 26 and 27 wick highs simply ended up becoming lower highs, confirming suspected descent. This descent continues today and nothing that I have been predicting for the last 4 (going on 5) weeks now has changed. I am, at this point, still expecting a retest of the C&H neckline at 25,300. If this does not occur now, it will occur later. And that scenario will wreck crypto market bulls completely. I'd much rather see this retest occur sooner than later. And, from a technical perspective, this would indicate lots of future strength and bullish price action to come.
But, if we are not going to retest the neckline soon, then there are a few things that I am looking to occur for the bulls to prove to us that they have the strength to take us up to that 36-40k target first.
#1. We have to stay above that 50 day ma. A break below would be further confirmation of that neckline retest.
#2. We have to either break above that descending black trend line AND/OR form a new pivot high on the daily beating the April 26/27 pivot high. This would simply be an early indicator that the bulls are targeting that 30k resistance again. Although, it's a positive sign for the bulls to be sure, they still must beat and confirm 30k. And until they do so, my neckline retest theory remains in tact.
#3. So, number three then, is a move above 30k with confirmation the daily. We must see at least one more, but preferably two, additional candles in succession opening and closing above 30k. That would be our indication that 36-40k is now in the cards.
In conclusion, I still believe that 36-40k target will be reached before the end of the year. But my hope is that we can reach that target with healthy market price movement prior to achieving that target. Healthy target price movement constitutes a drawback and touch of that 25,300 level before further ascension and currently that thesis is still being support by current market price action.
Best in all your trades,
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