Trading Fam,

I almost never reference my old posts. I expect astute readers to do their own research on me to confirm for themselves whether I am worth reading/following or not. But I am finding that only a very small number of my followers actually do that. That both surprises me and also doesn’t. And so, even though I absolutely can’t stand the “see, I told you so” influencers, I realize that there is sometimes reason to assist their followers in confirming trust. Here we are with Bitcoin at 81k. Admittedly, I didn’t think it would take us this long to hit 81k, but we’ve done it. You should all know what I believe is next.

In short, if we can’t confirm a break above 81k on the daily AND weekly ...at least 49-52k is easily within sight.

Take care,

✌️Stew

Related posts:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/k6itX0y2-Long-Bitcoin-to-81K/

Trading Fam,

I’ve already indicated in a past post how the overwhelming majority of insiders are trading the SPX short and will probably be using retailers as exit liquidity.

I will not make this post on OIL long. On the technical side, we are still above every major SMA. We are still inside a very bullish descending wedge. Couple this with the fact that we are constantly acquiring new data regarding whales entering long positions on oil, and we have some very bad signs that this could be a fake stock market rally. Extreme caution is warranted.

I have posted yet another example of a huge whale here opening a nearly 18 million dollar long on oil ahead of supposed U.S.-Iran talks. Does this whale know something the average retail trader does not? 18 million dollars screams, “YES”!

✌️Stew

DUB Copy-Trade Account

Trading Fam,

In these volatile and uncertain market conditions, it is dangerous to rely on press releases and news headlines to make our trades. Often, we are able to read the headlines before they happen by carefully analyzing the charts. In this video, we are ignoring the noise and diving straight into the charts, specifically, six charts which are all telling us the same story: the dollar, Gold, Silver, SPX/SPY, Bitcoin, and the VIX. Are they telling us a different story than what we are hearing in the headlines regarding the Strait of Hormuz? I'll review the charts and let you be the judge of that.

✌️Stew

DUB Copy Trade Account

stock tracker

Trading Fam,

Though we are slowing the pace of trades in this volatile market climate, we are still able to capture wins on the best selected entries. OKLO was one of our few trades this last month. Imo, that’s okay. Not trading is also a risk. It is a risk because while that cash is sidelined, we may lose out on opportunities if/when the market takes off. But if done right, it is a way to preserve capital. These last few months, we have done well at both preserving capital while the market has faltered and dropped, and we have also had a few opportunities to capture a few profitable trades. OKLO is one of these trades.

Today I have decided to sell. A few reasons for this include the fact that we have hit that 100-day SMA, which intersected our VRVP PoC line exactly, making this a strong area of resistance and point of confluence. I also do not want to hold over another potentially volatile weekend flooded with uncertain geopolitical headlines and bullsh*t. I am happy to take my 27% profit on this entry today and run.

You can view the full details of this trade and all of my trades here:

stock tracker

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

What can I say? This Trump Pump and Dump market has shaken out a lot of the weak hands. As for me, I’ve had good success trading it.

In my last post, I brought a potential head and shoulders pattern to your attention. The neckline was broken, but the pattern was quickly invalidated, further proving why stop limits are so valuable in a volatile market climate such as this.

Now, we have a new pattern potentially emerging. Will this pattern complete? Remains to be seen, but a double-top at 7k seems like a fairly good bet in my book. This one is an Eve and Adam pattern. If true, we’ll at least revisit that last pivot low at around $6300.

Additionally, I’ve pasted a hard-to-see screenshot of insider trading. The details don’t matter as much as the color, which is all red. Basically, what this shows us is that out of the top 60 insider transactions, only 1 went long. The other 59? All short.

So, who is becoming these insiders’ exit liquidity? Probably retail per usual. Don’t become another casualty in that game. Unless the S&P can beat 7k, my sentiment falls in line with the other 59 insiders, bearish for now.

✌️Stew

P.S. - Though still testing. I am actively trading on my DUB copy-trade account here:

https://app.dubapp.com/portfolios/567841151768834048

Trading Fam,

Previously, you will note that my short-term bias had remained to the upside (81-82k specifically). While my mid-term bias remains bearish (targeting around 50k to the downside). As of close on Friday, I’ve grown more uncertain that the short-term bulls will even have the strength to retest my short-term target of 81-82k. The bear flag channel that I had drawn appears to have broken. But has it?

I may have been drawing this channel inaccurately. I am not sure. Though I am personally still long Bitcoin to my short-term target, my conviction is growing weaker by the day. If that recent pivot low given to us on Friday is broken and confirmed on the daily, I will probably be exiting my short-term long position in favor of my mid-term short target.

Since I will be traveling next week, I wanted to quickly post an update on where I am at and also pose a question to you, the reader. How would you draw this bear flag channel? Is the upper chart scenario most accurate? Or the lower?

I’d love to see what my followers are thinking. Let me know in the comments below.

✌️Stew

As I continue to evolve in my trading strategy and also the type of content I post to my platform here on substack, I want to make you all aware of some changes to how I post trade alerts.

Trade alerts are a category (also found in a tab at the top of my newsletter) in which I notify all of my followers of trades that I have added to my public tracker. My tracker keeps track of all these trades and can be found here:

Trade Tracker

Previously, I was creating a new post for each trade. I would delineate the details of the trade from both a technical perspective as well as any fundamentals if relevant. Additionally, I would post the details of the trade including: target, stop loss, risk-reward-ratio, entry price, etc. All of this information might be a little overkill, and since it is also tracked on the spreadsheet, it is redundant to some degree and thereby unnecessary.

I will now be posting most new trades via notes or on X. You can follow either of these feeds with notifications turned on for the latest trades. For example, I just re-entered OKLO. You should find a new note on this in both locations, and you can then follow the link to the tracker to find further details.

By posting trades in this manner, I hope to reduce unnecessary newsletter traffic to your inbox as well as minimize the amount of information that may not be of interest to you.

One final note. Though I haven’t officially announced it yet, you may also choose to follow me on the dub app. I have been beta testing an account with a very small amount of funds here (increasing soon) to ensure that the app will do what it says it will do on the box. So far, my experience has not been okay, though there are a few caveats that I would like to bring to your attention before you choose this method.

First, the positives:

1. The biggest positive is that if you have little to no interest in making your own trades manually, based on what I trade, your trades can be automated. When you sign up for DUB and choose to follow my ‘Stewdamus Trades’ portfolio, you may designate an amount of your choosing to copy my portfolio trades. This makes it easy, automated, and completely hands-off for you. When I make a profit, you make a profit. I am further incentivized to profit by being awarded a small commission for each successful trade. It is really a no-brainer in the truest sense of the phrase. At last check, my portfolio was up 14% in the two months I have been testing this account, all while stocks have gone sideways to down. The goal is to capture the type of profits I have exhibited via the Trade Tracker, and I am sure this won’t be a problem.

2. Another benefit is the relatively low cost of joining the DUB app and copying a portfolio. When I first joined, it was around $100 per year.

3. A final benefit is that you may follow anyone you like. I am not even attempting to sell my portfolio here. I’d like for the portfolio to eventually speak for itself, but I understand if it’s not for you at the moment. My goal all along in this venture has been to help the little guy make money. I will stay true to this focus and not attempt to sell my worth only because I will make a little money. So, do yourself a favor and check out DUB!

Now, the negatives:

1. I am only able to make one portfolio re-allocation per day. This means that if I happen to find another great entry after re-allocating my portfolio, I cannot make that entry until the next day. It also means that if I want to exit a trade after re-allocation, I cannot do so until the next day. You can understand the inherent risk here in this volatile market.

2. I cannot set stop limits or limit orders. Each trade must be entered manually by me and exited in the same way. Though eventually, these features may be added, they are currently not available.

3. I cannot short. This is a long-only market order platform. The trading instruments available are still relatively limited. Again, these options may grow in the future, but for now, this is where the app is at.

4. Not all assets are available for me to trade. For example, the other day I was looking for a specific Bitcoin ETF to enter. There are almost a dozen. I could only find a few. I had to utilize what was available to me at the time. Not a huge deal, but it may limit my trade options at times.

5. The app is still new, so there are occasional hiccups. The other day, I was hoping to hop into UVXY (Ultra VIX). I would have made a massive profit in this entry and would probably still be holding to this day; however, the trade never executed. I contacted support to find out why. They explained there was a “technical issue” on their end. The best I got was an apology. Not enough to make up for the doubling or even tripling of profit I could have had.

All of this being said, I am overall happy with the experience and am glad to have found an app that allows my followers to copy-trade my portfolio. Check it out here if you find this to be of interest.

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

As we trade through this treacherous market, I check the big charts daily to understand if they are telling me anything new via volume, pattern, trends, etc. Today I’ve spotted what appears to be a rather ominous Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the SPY/SPX charts. If correct, we should see a continued rebound in stocks for at least this week and into next, until the top of that right shoulder is found. For this pattern to be confirmed, we would then need to see the price start to fall again down to that neckline. If that neckline were to break, I would expect further selling down to around $6000-6100.

I’ll be watching this closely and updating here.

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

In 2006, the housing market here in the U.S. crossed what I call “The Weakening Demand Zone” and entered into dangerous territory. This was critical data and a red flag that was warning us that something was not right. As the housing market grew weaker, it took the Fed two months to notice before it began to pause rates. It took 14 months before the Fed began to ease rates through quantitative easing. But it took the retail market 17 whole months before they stopped buying stocks and began selling!

Fast forward to recent times. The housing market began to warn us via negative bearish divergence on the monthly RSI that the housing market was not all that it appeared. This was its first red flag.

Then the housing market began to cross below my critical threshold, “The Weakening Demand Zone,” once again in September of 2022. This was the housing market raising its second red flag and signaling a warning.

Five months later, the Fed paused rates. Our third red flag.

Two years later, the Fed began to lower interest rates. Our fourth red flag.

All the while, retail continued to pile into stocks, creating new highs on all indexes. But it took the Fed 2.5 times longer to begin pausing rates after we dropped below my Weakening Demand Zone! If we multiply the time it took for the DJIA to top from the start of our housing market crash in 2006 (17 months) x 2.5, we end up with 42.5 months! 42.5 months from September of 2022 (where we crossed below my threshold) is mid-March of this year, NOW!

Is the housing market telling us our top is in? My bet is, yes. What is yours?

✌️Stew

Link to chart:

Trading Fam,

Risky trade here in these volatile times. But I think I have found a trade I am willing to take here. OKLO is currently sitting on its 350-day SMA. This is huge support! I think it may propel it to break that giant wedge to the upside. If so, there will be plenty of profit to be had.

✌️Stew

Trade Tracker

Trading Fam,

We are now beginning our much-anticipated move lower in the U.S. stock market. I like to use the SPX chart to help me anticipate future price movements. So, in this video, we will look quickly at what I am seeing and use this chart to help anticipate future price movement.

✌️Stew

Pivot Zones Indicator

Trade Tracker

Trading Fam,

I still believe silver could drop further before a massive run ensues. In this video, I quickly cover why I believe this to be the case and why the charts currently support this thesis.

✌️Stew

Pivot Zones Indicator

Trade Tracker

Trading Fam,

The current geopolitical news is causing massive uncertainty in the markets. Volatility is increasing. But if we read the charts right, it can help guide our potential direction and trades. And thanks to my Pivot Zones Indicator, I have additional confidence on Bitcoins potential price path forward.

I recently entered Bitcoin at 64.5k. Sold at 73.5k. And now I will look to re-enter long at 64-65k again, targeting a final price of 81-82k. Once we reach this price level, the true test will begin. As I have stated all along, I remain bearish long-term unless this level can be defeated with confirmation on the daily and weekly charts. Until that time comes, my downside target remains at between 40-50k.

Let’s take a deeper look at what I am seeing on the Bitcoin chart.

✌️Stew

Trade Tracker

Trading Fam,

This is my first crypto trade in a minute. Keep in mind, this is not me turning bullish yet. As I have stated all along, I am bearish Bitcoin to 38-42k sometime mid-2026 UNLESS (big exception here) Bitcoin can defeat 81k on the daily with a second confirmation candle. Then I might start to show some signs of bullish interest. But I’ll really only become a bull again if 81k is defeated on the weekly with a second week’s confirmation candle. Until this time, I remain bearish, and we’ll simply be playing fear, bearish exhaustion, and dead cat bounces as the opportunity avails itself to enter these types of trades.

In this case, we are in extreme fear, and my Pivot Zones Indicator has flashed a BUY signal. This was given on Feb. 7th and has now been confirmed with a large liquidity block. On the Bitcoin price chart, my indicator is very accurate. Therefore, I have a high degree of confidence that I can take this trade with minimal risk. I will be trading the BITO etf in this case.

In the top chart, you can see where my indicator gave us our BUY signal. I have chosen to enter today as we near the bottom of our bullish channel. I expect the next move up to break us out. I think this move will propel us up nearly 25% to that 81k resistance, where I plan to sell.

Because I am trading Bitcoin using the BITO etf, this will target a gap fill at around $11.33. Since I am using a 1:2 RRR, this will equate to a $7.76 stop out level. However, I don’t expect us to drop too far below that 200-week SMA, which is currently acting as strong support.

The Fear/Greed index is at an extremely fearful 5, making this a perfect opportunity to buy and capitalize on said fear.

✌️Stew

stock tracker

UPDATE (3/4/26): We broke the channel to the upside and should now approach our 50-day SMA (blue line) fairly quickly. It wouldn’t hurt to take some profit off at that point. Should we drop back down from that resistance, you could always re-enter at a lower price if desired and trade your way up to our final target. Or, just take some profit and let the rest ride. You do you!

Trading Fam,

All is going as anticipated. Updates are really not necessary if you’ve been following me. I called the Dollar crash, Bitcoin crash, and a pullback that is still to come in the U.S. stock market. So, we’ll touch briefly on these charts again by way of re-visit, but the primary focus of this video will be SILVER. Where do we look to enter, re-enter, or buy and hold for the long term? Let’s dive in.

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

Both BTC and ETH have broken major support levels to the downside. We are likely to see the price move up to retest this previous support (now resistance) before further price movement to the downside resumes.

Take care.

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

Not a long post here, as I have said enough on this in many of my previous posts. Just wanted to update you on the Head and Shoulders pattern. Our candle close today has now confirmed a break in the neckline. This is bad. We will now look to the weekly candle close to confirm further price action down. The weekly could save us. But this is doubtful.

Remember, I have outlined at least 6 additional strong bearish patterns in previous posts that have all been confirmed. This H&S was really the final nail in the coffin. My target down remains a rough 40-50k. If we’re lucky, we’ll turn up again at 60k. But that remains to be seen.

One more note and something to keep an eye on, Michael Saylor’s MSTR BTC buy-in price is roughly 74k. If Bitcoin breaks below that for any sustained amount of time, things could get spicy!

The show must go on.

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

I feel dirty for posting these recent titles. They are not intended to be clickbait. I swear. I am only relaying to you what I am seeing in the charts. I never really gained popularity by becoming bearish on crypto anyway. Degens still heart the moonboys. I am not one.

Now, to put it simply, Bitcoin has a 15 percent chance to negate the very ominous H&S pattern I am seeing in the charts. Should it take that 15 percent path, what I am about to say becomes null and void.

If Bitcoin follows the highest probability path here and this H&S pattern plays out (85 percent chance), then you can see the target I have drawn to the downside ...somewhere between 40-50k is my rough estimate. Ouch! This represents up to a 50 percent drop from the current price.

Surprisingly, altcoins appear to be able to fair better. The target I have drawn for the Total3 chart represents a 25-30 percent loss.

Both Bitcoin and Altcoins are on strong support right now. If broken, the targets down become valid.

Total3 shows that the price remains in a descending channel. Should Bitcoin’s H&S pattern trigger, I would expect alts to follow. They would then descend to the bottom of this channel, which intersects with that green support area.

You will also note that I have an “October 2023 Support” trendline drawn on both charts. Both of these trendlines have been broken to the downside, giving further indication of more bearish price action to come.

Be SAFU!

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

Gold and Silver liquidated over 10 trillion dollars in less than 24 hours! To put that into perspective, that’s the entire crypto market cap multiplied by over 3 times! What we witnessed in today’s metals crash was truly historic! But was it real or an illusion?

I called “bluff” and bought SILVER. If you’re a believer in scaling into your entries, today could have been a great start. Could SILVER go lower? Yes. Of course. However, recent demand for its utility in technology suggests that buying demand will resume quickly.

In more recent history, paper trading contracts have massively suppressed the true value of gold and silver, but silver has often taken the brunt of the hit. Today was a prime example. If we were to ever return to true historical values on silver, we should see a price of $200-$250 per oz. silver for every $5000 per oz. gold. We’re nowhere near that. But I think we will get there soon. The collapse of the U.S. dollar further strengthens my conviction in this thesis. What we witnessed today in the precious metals market was unprecedented. The level of coordination by large institutions was both amazing and terrifying. However, their con game can’t last.

We’ll take a closer look at what the charts are showing us for SILVER, the U.S. dollar, the SPX, and Bitcoin.

Please enjoy this week’s update.

✌️Stew

Trading Fam,

Keeping this trade simple here with low risk. Received a “BUY” signal from my [url=https://www.tradingview.com/script/HmkhMAiW-Pivot-Zones-Stewdamus/]Pivot Zones Indicator[/url] and I’m entering the trade. We are above the 200-day SMA. I want to shoot for that fairly recent gap down that was made at the end of last year as a target. I will exit if we drop much below that 200-day SMA. At entry, this trade was a 1:5.4 rrr.

✌️Stew

stock tracker